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A report from the India Energy and Climate Center at the University of California Berkeley projected that new power-and-biomass-to-liquids facilities commissioned in 2036 will reach full levelised cost parity with conventional aviation turbine fuel under baseline market assumptions. The assessment found that fixed rupee-denominated power purchase agreements for renewable electricity allow these synthetic fuel projects to avoid exposure to US dollar commodity inflation and ongoing rupee depreciation against the dollar. Researchers at the centre calculated that wholesale jet fuel prices in India have risen by 5 percent annually in nominal rupee terms between 2005 and 2025 with 1.9 percentage points attributable to dollar-based commodity inflation and the remainder to currency movements.
The India Energy and Climate Center study placed the 2030 levelised production cost of power-and-biomass-to-liquids fuel at 127 rupees per litre which stands 18 percent above the adjusted levelised purchase price of conventional fuel over a 25-year horizon. In single-year snapshots the gap appears wider with the report estimating a 2030 production cost of 1.41 dollars per litre against 0.97 dollars for conventional supplies. Yet the longer project-cycle view narrows that differential substantially because the domestic facilities lock in major inputs through long-term fixed-tariff agreements rather than fluctuating international prices the assessment explained.
According to the report co-benefits from reduced agricultural burning and lower carbon emissions could close the commercial gap much earlier. Monetising health improvements from curtailed stubble fires adds an estimated 0.38 dollars per litre in societal value while assigning a carbon price contributes another 0.22 dollars potentially bringing forward parity to 2030. The study noted that India burns roughly 130 million tonnes of agricultural residue each year generating severe air pollution that has been linked to between 44,000 and 98,000 premature deaths annually between 2003 and 2019.
India’s world-leading solar tariffs below 0.03 dollars per kilowatt-hour have already enabled green hydrogen auctions to clear at 3.1 dollars to 4.5 dollars per kilogram the India Energy and Climate Center report highlighted as a key enabler for competitive power-and-biomass-to-liquids pathways. The country imports nearly all its crude oil leaving aviation fuel supplies vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions such as closures in the Strait of Hormuz. A separate IDTechEx forecast placed the global sustainable aviation fuel market at 50 billion dollars by 2036 as blending mandates and decarbonisation targets drive demand for alternatives that can achieve more than 95 percent greenhouse-gas reductions compared with fossil baselines.
The June 2026 analysis emphasised that power-and-biomass-to-liquids facilities require far less biomass feedstock than competing pathways while balancing land and water use across districts with the highest surplus residue in states such as Uttar Pradesh West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh. Project economics remain sensitive to green hydrogen prices below 3.4 dollars per kilogram where the route undercuts other sustainable options the researchers found. India Energy and Climate Center analysts concluded that these domestic advantages position the technology to hedge against imported fuel volatility while supporting national goals for energy security and air-quality improvement.
