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Brent crude futures declined $1.29 or 1.5 percent to $87.69 a barrel on Thursday while West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.30 or 1.6 percent to $81.97 according to a Reuters dispatch from Beijing and Singapore. The moves came after both major forecasters released downward revisions to consumption estimates the previous day. Supply risks tied to the regional conflict nevertheless prevented steeper declines in the session.
OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 580000 barrels per day in its monthly oil market report a development Reuters described as the fourth consecutive reduction by the producer group. The adjustment reflects ongoing economic pressures from restricted fuel availability and elevated costs linked to the Iran conflict. The organisation continues to project a more modest impact on consumption than some other analysts.
The International Energy Agency revised its outlook to a 1.6 million barrels per day contraction in global oil consumption this year up from a prior forecast of a 1 million barrel per day decline Reuters reported. The agency pointed to curtailed demand resulting from higher prices and supply limitations caused by the war. This assessment highlights the demand destruction associated with the geopolitical situation.
Disruptions including the effective closure of key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz have created supply constraints that provided a floor for prices despite the weaker demand signals. Iran has indicated no progress in reviving an interim peace deal with the United States leaving talks in deadlock. The balanced pressures left traders assessing both near-term bearish factors and longer-term supply risks.
A Reuters poll of economists conducted in July projected Brent crude to average $85.22 per barrel for 2026 with WTI seen at $80.14 an increase from the previous survey that incorporated persistent supply threats from the Middle East. These longer-term estimates offer context for current trading levels amid volatility. The figures reflect analyst expectations of how geopolitical factors may influence prices over the coming year.
Market updates tracked by Reuters also noted a surprise build in US crude inventories which added to downward pressure on prices in the session. The inventory increase compounded the effect of the fresh demand revisions from OPEC and the IEA. Participants will continue monitoring further data releases on economic activity and developments in the conflict for additional direction.
