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Gold maintained levels close to its strongest point in two weeks after disappointing U.S. employment figures for June dampened prospects for an imminent monetary tightening. Spot prices climbed 1.3 percent to $4,174.21 an ounce in London afternoon trade, Reuters reported, while front-month futures posted similar gains. The move positioned bullion for a weekly advance exceeding 2 percent, its first such rise in five weeks.
The softer labor market report led traders to reassess Federal Reserve policy probabilities. Markets now price in a 54 percent chance of a rate hike at the September meeting, down from 66 percent before the data emerged, according to the CME FedWatch tool tracked by Reuters. This recalibration weakened the dollar and lowered bond yields, providing tailwinds for the precious metal.
All precious metals headed for weekly gains as the employment slowdown filtered through financial markets, a Reuters assessment found. Bullion held firmly above its 21-day moving average during the period. Han Tan, chief market analyst at Bybit, told Reuters that the immediate price response appeared justified given the shift in rate expectations.
A World Gold Council mid-year outlook released this week projected prices to remain rangebound around $4,100 an ounce through the second half of 2026 if prevailing conditions persist. The council’s analysis pointed to possible upside toward $4,500 an ounce should geopolitical risks escalate or policy outlooks shift markedly. Such scenarios would build on gold’s year-to-date performance as one of the stronger assets despite a recent pullback from January peaks above $5,500.
World Gold Council data placed first-quarter global demand, including over-the-counter transactions, at 1,231 tonnes, a 2 percent increase from the prior year. The surge in prices drove the value of that demand to a record $193 billion, up 74 percent year-on-year, even as jewelry volumes contracted. Central bank buying and investment demand remained key supports amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
Central banks have accumulated gold at an accelerated pace over recent years, averaging 1,000 tonnes annually compared with 500 tonnes in the preceding decade, World Gold Council figures show. This buying has occurred against a backdrop of geopolitical strains and inflation worries that have kept investors engaged with the metal. ETF inflows during periods of market volatility have further reinforced price stability near current levels.
