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The Emirates News Agency reported that oil held broadly stable in trading with the Brent benchmark at $102.28 per barrel while West Texas Intermediate crude moved in a similarly narrow range. Traders weighed persistent supply risks from the Middle East against signs of improving flows through alternative routes that have eased some immediate pressures on the market. A senior Iranian official indicated that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within days under certain conditions which added to the mixed sentiment influencing price action throughout the session.
According to a Reuters report OPEC+ oil producers are expected to maintain their output targets unchanged at an upcoming meeting as the group focuses on longer-term quota negotiations for 2027. Gulf members have produced well below their allocated levels in recent months due to regional conflicts that have curtailed exports even as targets were raised earlier in the year. The alliance completed the rollback of a prior 1.65-million-barrel-per-day supply cut in September yet overall production remains constrained by security concerns in key waterways.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that Brent crude will average around $90 per barrel in the second half of 2026 which is $8 higher than previously forecast due to continued though gradually easing disruptions.[[1]](http://goo.gl/1ywm16) Shut-in production averaged 6.7 million barrels per day in August and is expected to remain elevated near 5.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter before supplies begin to recover through bypass pipelines and ship-to-ship transfers. The agency anticipates prices will then decline to an average of $77 per barrel by the second quarter of 2027 as Middle East output ramps up with new infrastructure coming online in the United Arab Emirates by mid-2027.
OPEC has reduced its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 for the fifth month in a row according to its latest monthly assessment which now places the increase at 380,000 barrels per day. The revision reflects weaker consumption in China parts of the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East while the organization raised its 2027 demand growth projection by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.36 million barrels per day. Non-OPEC+ supply is seen expanding by 640,000 barrels per day this year with little change to that outlook from the prior month.
Recent data from OilPrice.net placed WTI crude near $92.53 per barrel after a session gain of 2.33 percent while the Brent-WTI spread tightened to $9.56.[[2]](https://oilprice.net/oil) Inventories at Cushing rose modestly in the latest weekly report even as refinery utilization dipped which has contributed to firmness in product margins particularly for diesel that has reached record premiums. Industry groups continue to monitor these shifts as volatility remains about 2.3 times the 30-day average with geopolitical developments likely to dictate near-term direction.
