ع
The study prepared by the India Energy and Climate Centre at UC Berkeley’s Goldman School of Public Policy along with Energy Innovation Policy and Technology identified power-and-biomass-to-liquids technology as the least-cost pathway for India to decarbonise its aviation sector. India imports nearly 90 percent of its crude oil according to the report which leaves the country exposed to price volatility and geopolitical risks. Aviation turbine fuel accounted for less than 4 percent of oil consumption in 2024 but is projected to rise six-fold by 2050 increasing vulnerability to supply shocks the assessment found.
Seasonal burning of an estimated 130 million tonnes of crop residue contributes significantly to air pollution with New Delhi recording the world’s worst air quality among capitals the report stated. That burning causes between 44,000 and 98,000 premature deaths annually while also reducing productivity raising healthcare costs and deterring tourism according to the study’s analysis. India’s carbon dioxide emissions have tripled since 2000 and more ambitious measures will be required to reach net-zero by 2070 the report noted.
Plummeting solar electricity costs among the lowest globally have driven down green hydrogen prices creating a unique opportunity when paired with the biomass surplus the study indicated. This combination enables sustainable aviation fuel production costs up to 40 percent below international benchmarks with price parity to fossil jet fuel possible in the 2030s depending on oil prices and policy support. The report added that India could meet rising international demand driven by blending mandates and corporate sustainability targets in the interim.
Global Market Insights data shows the worldwide sustainable aviation fuel market expanding from $1.7 billion in 2024 to a projected $74.6 billion by 2034 at a compound annual growth rate of 46.2 percent. RMI analysis places 2024 global jet fuel consumption at approximately 107 billion gallons with sustainable aviation fuel production on track for 500 million gallons this year but needing substantial scale-up to meet decarbonisation goals. The Indian government has set indicative blending targets of 1 percent in 2027 2 percent in 2028 and 5 percent in 2030 for international flights according to a Press Information Bureau release.
The assessment pointed to Delhi Pune and Mumbai as optimal locations for initial facilities due to their proximity to major airports and ample residue supplies. It urged mobilisation of public sector refiners including Indian Oil Corporation Bharat Petroleum Corporation and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation to lead deployment leveraging their infrastructure and access to government financing. Co-benefits would include reduced air pollution avoided premature deaths enhanced rural economies through collection and processing jobs and improved soil quality from diverted burning the report detailed.
The study cautioned that only verified surplus residue should be utilised to prevent soil nutrient loss or unintended land-use changes while rejecting pathways reliant on food crops or fossil hydrogen. Recommendations included concessional finance for demonstration projects streamlined approvals trade measures aligned with European Union and United Kingdom requirements and incentives linked to pollution reduction benefits. The authors also called for expanding the 2030 blending target beyond 5 percent to offer greater investment certainty.
