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Fisher Investments founder Ken Fisher stated in a column published by The National that the Iran war offers no compelling reason for investors to sell stocks or anticipate persistent high inflation. The investment adviser who oversees $285 billion in assets noted that global equities recovered strongly after an initial March plunge even as peace negotiations remained fragile. According to Fisher the MSCI All-Country World Index advanced 17.1 per cent from its lows to reach fresh record highs demonstrating markets’ ability to look beyond immediate uncertainties.
The US blockade has altered little about Iran’s oil flows since the country had already ceased shipments to unfriendly nations prior to the escalation Fisher reported. Iran exported only 1.7 million barrels per day before the conflict with nearly all of it destined for China which holds substantial reserves. Fisher highlighted that workarounds around the Strait of Hormuz have proliferated reducing the blockade’s effectiveness.
The International Energy Agency has estimated between 3.5 million and 5.5 million barrels per day of alternative pipeline capacity exists to bypass the Strait of Hormuz through Saudi and UAE routes. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline now operates at full capacity exceeding 5 million barrels daily up sharply from 800000 barrels prewar according to Fisher. The UAE has expanded exports via Fujairah while discussions continue on reactivating the Iraq-Turkey Kirkuk-Ceyhan line and overland transport options have expanded for non-oil commodities.
Eurostat data showed euro area inflation rising to 3.0 per cent year-on-year in April 2026 with US figures reaching 3.8 per cent in the same period. Fisher observed that money supply remains far from the explosive growth seen post-Covid with eurozone M3 advancing 3.2 per cent annually in March and US M4 up 5.8 per cent. Without accelerated monetary expansion higher oil costs prompt consumer substitution toward lower spending on discretionary items rather than broad price increases he explained.
Official statistics indicated US prices excluding energy climbed 2.8 per cent year-on-year in April barely changed from prewar levels while eurozone non-energy inflation eased to 2.2 per cent. Fisher pointed to the October 2022 bottom in the ACWI index which occurred amid the Ukraine war spiking global inflation and aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. Stocks began recovering well before public sentiment improved in that episode and similarly looked past Covid lockdowns in March 2020 he added.
A Dallas Fed paper examining the 2026 Iran war found that the initial oil price surge translated into moderated US inflationary effects over time due to market adjustments. Morgan Stanley analysts have documented that equity markets have tended to deliver positive returns in the year following major geopolitical conflicts with defense and related sectors often leading gains. Invesco has recommended investors retain a long-term perspective on equities despite ongoing headline risks from the Middle East developments.
