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A Reuters dispatch on Sept 21 detailed how the Trump administration has taken a less combative tone than in past encounters with Beijing before the leaders meet this week. The approach contrasts with earlier summits that featured public warnings of major tariff hikes on Chinese goods or curbs on US technology shipments. China experts cited in the report pointed to Beijing’s leverage over critical minerals as the driving factor behind the restraint. According to the analysis, this dynamic underscores a shift in the balance of economic power since previous rounds of tensions.
Consultancy AlixPartners data places China’s share at up to 70 percent of global rare earth mining, 85 percent of refining capacity and about 90 percent of rare earth metal alloy and magnet production. Minerals such as yttrium and dysprosium are essential to automobile manufacturing, semiconductor production and defense systems, creating a strategic vulnerability for supply chains outside China. US Geological Survey figures for 2025 estimate American rare earth output at 51,000 metric tons against China’s 270,000 metric tons, highlighting the scale of the gap. Recent trade data tracked by industry monitors showed Chinese rare earth magnet shipments to the United States fell 21 percent in August from the prior month.
Emily Kilcrease, a former US trade official now with the Center for a New American Security, told Reuters that the administration finds itself in a fundamentally different position with China. “The US and the Trump administration are just fundamentally in a different position with China where they can’t use that overly coercive, over-reaching approach, knowing that they are going to walk some stuff back, because of everything that happened last summer and because of the rare-earth export controls,” Kilcrease said. Her assessment referenced events in 2025 when Beijing imposed export limits on rare earths in response to US tariffs, disrupting global markets.
Reuters reporting traced the pattern to last summer’s confrontation, after which Trump and Xi reached a truce during October 2025 talks in Busan, South Korea. Under that understanding, Beijing suspended tighter rare earth controls for one year while Washington scaled back certain tariffs and postponed broader technology restrictions. The suspension is set to expire in November, adding urgency to the current discussions. A separate Reuters overview of the bilateral timeline noted that both sides have maintained an uneasy pause in escalation since the Busan meeting.
The White House, Commerce Department, US Trade Representative’s office and Chinese Embassy in Washington declined to comment on the analysis, Reuters said. Industry observers have pointed to ongoing US initiatives aimed at building domestic processing capacity, though these remain limited relative to Chinese dominance. Council on Foreign Relations assessments from Sept 21 indicated that Beijing has kept rare earth flows below pre-2025 averages even after the truce, preserving leverage ahead of the summit. Such patterns have prompted Washington to prioritize supply assurances in talks.
Trump and Xi are scheduled to hold talks at the White House on Thursday followed by a state dinner with senior officials and business executives, according to the Reuters account. The agenda is expected to cover trade, technology cooperation and economic relations, with rare earth access forming an underlying priority. Earlier 2026 meetings produced commitments on purchases of US agricultural goods and aircraft but left core supply chain issues unresolved.
