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Anthony Nyong, director for climate change and green growth at the African Development Bank, told Reuters that the weather event is projected to cut GDP by an average of 1 percent to 2 percent in heavily impacted nations. The estimate represents the first such quantification from a major multilateral institution regarding the anticipated super El Nino. Nyong cautioned that the shocks would not be isolated, with recovery from similar past events often taking years as evidenced by Mozambique following Cyclone Idai in 2019.
The African Development Bank’s May forecasts had projected continental growth of 4.2 percent for this year and 4.4 percent in 2027, assuming a swift resolution to conflicts in the Middle East. Those projections did not factor in the strengthening El Nino signals that have since emerged from Pacific Ocean monitoring. A United Nations Environment Programme report from October 2025 placed annual climate adaptation needs for developing countries at $365 billion by 2035, with international flows reaching only $26 billion in 2023.
Nyong highlighted that Africa now requires up to $100 billion in adaptation finance this year, an increase of $30 billion to $50 billion from prior estimates due to the El Nino threat. The bank has identified Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi and Nigeria as nations facing acute risks from the pattern. Agricultural losses are estimated at around $327 million with fisheries productivity potentially declining between 1 percent and 4 percent, according to AfDB assessments.
The expert warned that maize prices, a staple in many regions, could double, exacerbating food insecurity and driving population movements. “When this El Nino comes there is going to be mass migration,” Nyong said. “You are not going to stay put, you are going to move.”
Previous El Nino episodes have produced comparable effects, with the International Monetary Fund noting short-lived declines in economic activity for countries including South Africa during such events. A Peterson Institute for International Economics analysis of historical data suggested that a strong El Nino could reduce global growth with outsized effects on tropical economies. The African Development Bank plans a dedicated seminar in September to evaluate implications for its portfolio and explore restructuring options.
Governments risk falling into a climate finance trap where emergency spending diverts resources from health, education and infrastructure, Nyong added. The institution stands prepared to assist countries in accessing funds from the Green Climate Fund, Adaptation Fund and loss-and-damage mechanisms. “When these shocks happen, countries take two steps back,” Nyong said. “We don’t want our countries to slide into poverty.”
