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The Emirates News Agency reported that oil prices advanced for a fifth straight day amid persistent supply worries from the Middle East. Brent crude futures rose 1.3 percent to settle at 89.22 dollars per barrel after earlier touching 91.42 dollars, its highest level since mid-June. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 2.1 percent to 84.20 dollars. Market participants tracked developments closely as the latest increases capped a strong weekly performance.
Reuters reported on July 20 that escalating hostilities between the United States and Iran had restricted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global crude shipments. The number of vessels transiting the waterway stayed low over the weekend following repeated strikes. ING analysts stated in a note that ICE Brent broke above 90 dollars per barrel with no let-up in the Gulf escalation.
Brent posted a 15.9 percent gain the previous week, its largest weekly advance since April, according to Reuters compilations of exchange data. WTI recorded a 15.5 percent weekly rise over the same period. These moves occurred as the conflict entered a phase that limited Persian Gulf supply to roughly 90 percent of pre-crisis volumes in initial estimates from industry sources.
The US Energy Information Administration projected in its latest short-term outlook that Brent would average 74 dollars per barrel in the third quarter of 2026 before the most recent surge in tensions altered market dynamics. The agency anticipated ongoing inventory builds would exert downward pressure on prices through 2027, with Brent falling toward 65 dollars in that year. Current trading levels have exceeded those earlier forecasts by a wide margin.
J.P. Morgan Global Research revised its outlook to forecast Brent averaging 86 dollars per barrel in the third quarter of 2026 and 78 dollars by year-end. The bank cited surprising demand losses paired with inventory draws that differed from initial expectations after the onset of US-Israel operations against Iran in late February. Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy at the bank, said the rebalancing had proven materially different in composition than first modeled.
