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Fitch Ratings retained the United Arab Emirates’ long-term issuer default rating at AA- with a stable outlook, according to a report in The National. The assessment highlighted strong oil revenues that held near 86 dollars a barrel despite risks to the Strait of Hormuz, supported by alternative pipelines through Fujairah and Abu Dhabi’s net foreign assets at 164 percent of gross domestic product. Real GDP is forecast to contract 4.8 percent in 2026 while non-oil growth reaches 3.2 percent before a rebound the next year. Fitch stated that damage from the war on non-oil growth could challenge the UAE’s sovereign balance sheet if conditions worsen.
Moody’s Ratings affirmed Saudi Arabia’s Aa3 rating with a stable outlook, The National reported on May 23. The agency pointed to the kingdom’s healthy oil sector supported by low production costs and asset holdings that provide an effective buffer against shocks. Saudi GDP is projected to fall 1.7 percent this year before expanding around 8 percent in 2027 as some trade flows divert via Red Sea routes. Moody’s central scenario assumes a prolonged disruption to shipping without further major damage to Saudi Arabia’s critical energy infrastructure.
Qatar maintained its Aa2 rating from Moody’s while Kuwait held its A1 grade, both with stable outlooks, according to the same assessment. Qatar’s robust balance sheet and LNG exports significantly outweigh its moderate debt burden and provide a large buffer, though prolonged Hormuz disruption or asset damage could present risks. Kuwait benefits from sovereign assets reaching as much as five times GDP along with high per capita income derived from its competitive hydrocarbons sector. These positions have enabled both countries to absorb volatility tied to the regional conflict.
S&P Global Ratings affirmed Bahrain’s rating at B/B with a stable outlook even as growth faces downward pressure, The National said. The evaluation factors in anticipated financial support from fellow Gulf states that helps mitigate the impact of supply chain interruptions. Moody’s Ratings shifted Bahrain’s outlook to negative in April amid the war uncertainties. S&P Global Ratings base-case scenario assumes that supply disruptions will ease in the second half of the year though flows could remain below prewar levels through the end of 2026.
Fitch Ratings noted in a March 2026 analysis that Middle Eastern sovereign ratings generally hold sufficient headroom to withstand a short regional conflict provided it does not escalate. The agency revised its 2026 global sovereign sector outlook to deteriorating from neutral because of the US-Iran war impact. An S&P Global Ratings report from the same period highlighted the high degree of unpredictability around the conflict’s duration and scale that is beginning to strain credit channels across multiple sectors.
The International Monetary Fund pointed to the UAE’s economic diversification, prudent macroeconomic management and substantial buffers that have helped mitigate war effects and supported the retention of strong credit ratings with stable outlooks by Moody’s and S&P. Qatar equally demonstrated resilience through sound policies and fiscal buffers that limited economic fallout and maintained financial system stability, an IMF document from April 2026 showed. These elements across the Gulf have prevented immediate downgrades despite the ongoing uncertainties.
