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Reuters reported that oil prices settled lower on July 10 after the latest round of U.S.-Iran fighting as traders grew hopeful that shipping would eventually resume in the Strait of Hormuz even though prices posted sharp weekly gains on lingering supply concerns. Brent crude futures settled at $76.01 a barrel after falling 29 cents or 0.38 percent while West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $71.41 a barrel down 67 cents or 0.93 percent. The settlement reflected a market balancing immediate geopolitical disruptions with expectations that U.S. military strength would prevent prolonged closure of the critical waterway. Phil Flynn senior analyst at Price Futures Group highlighted this sentiment in a note that pointed to confidence in swift resolution of the shipping issues.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly petroleum status report for the period ending July 3 showed commercial crude oil inventories rising by 3 million barrels to 411.4 million barrels which placed stocks about 6 percent below the five-year average for the time of year. Refinery inputs averaged 17 million barrels per day during the week a decrease of 173000 barrels per day from the previous period the EIA data indicated. Total commercial petroleum inventories fell by 4 million barrels overall even as motor gasoline stocks declined by 1.9 million barrels according to the same report.
The International Energy Agency’s Oil Market Report for June 2026 detailed how global observed inventories accelerated their decline in May dropping 143 million barrels at a pace of 4.6 million barrels per day. That acceleration lifted the average draw since the start of the Gulf conflict to 3.8 million barrels per day of which 2.4 million barrels per day was crude the IEA assessment found. OECD government inventories fell to their lowest level since December 1990 after emergency stock releases quickened during the period the agency reported.
EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook released on July 7 projected that global oil inventories would build by an average of 2.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026 after draws of 5.1 million barrels per day in the second quarter and 2.2 million barrels per day in the third. The forecast anticipates Brent averaging $70 per barrel in the fourth quarter a sharp reduction from the $103 per barrel seen in the second quarter as supply growth outpaces consumption the EIA outlook stated. Prices are then expected to average $65 per barrel in 2027 under the agency’s baseline scenario.
Phil Flynn senior analyst with Price Futures Group said in a morning note “Amazingly though oil prices are coming down after a spike near $76 a barrel even as the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut down once again mainly on confidence that the United States’ military strength will not allow the Strait of Hormuz to be shut down for an extended period of time.” His analysis aligned with the session’s price action that saw both benchmarks give back some of the prior gains driven by the regional conflict. The comment underscored how market participants were pricing in a relatively contained impact on long-term flows despite repeated attacks that had delayed full recovery of tanker traffic.
Data compiled by Trading Economics placed Brent at $76 per barrel on July 10 after a 0.39 percent daily decline that followed a volatile week in which the contract still gained nearly 5 percent. The platform’s figures show the benchmark has fallen 15.91 percent over the past month although it remains 8.02 percent higher than the level from a year earlier. Such movements come as the EIA and IEA both anticipate a shift toward inventory builds later in the year that could exert further downward pressure on prices once Middle East production fully recovers.
