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The Food and Agriculture Organization anticipates that the higher stocks will lift the global cereal stocks-to-use ratio to 32.4 percent slightly above the previous season’s level. Coarse grain inventories are also projected to grow with elevated maize stocks in South America and larger barley holdings in Australia and Ukraine according to the UN agency’s latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief. Rice reserves on the other hand are expected to fall although record carry-in levels will leave them at 216.5 million tonnes the second-highest on record.
World cereal production in 2026 is forecast to reach 2,999 million tonnes the second-highest level ever even as it slips from the 2025 record the FAO data shows. Declines are projected across all major cereals with wheat experiencing the sharpest drop while coarse grains register only a marginal decrease. Rice output is set to contract for the first time in four seasons falling 2.5 percent to 552 million tonnes largely because of poor producer margins and adverse weather linked to El Niño.
According to the organization’s assessment world cereal utilization in the 2026/27 season will total 2,971 million tonnes up 0.2 percent from the prior year. Food consumption of wheat and rice is seen rising by 0.8 percent and 1 percent respectively although these gains trail slightly behind global population growth. Industrial demand particularly for maize in ethanol production will contribute to the overall increase in utilization the FAO brief noted.
The UN agency forecasts world cereal trade in 2026/27 to contract by 3.3 percent to 507.7 million tonnes with an 8.6 percent decline in wheat shipments as the main factor. All major exporters are expected to reduce wheat volumes amid supply constraints or logistical challenges the report indicated. This development follows an expansion in trade during the previous season and reflects tighter conditions in key exporting regions.
FAO figures place the number of countries and territories requiring external food assistance at 41 with 31 located in Africa. Low-income food-deficit countries are projected to harvest about 126.5 million tonnes of cereals in 2026 an increase of roughly 2 percent from both the previous year and the five-year average. The gain stems mainly from a recovery in Asia especially the Near East while African output in this group stays close to average levels.
The November 6 update revised production estimates upward from earlier projections after incorporating recent official data from several major producers the FAO reported. Recent easing in world food prices including a 1.2 percent drop in the FAO food price index for October has occurred against this supply backdrop. The organization continues to track weather geopolitical developments and policy shifts that could alter these forecasts in coming months.
