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The main directions of the budgetary, tax and customs-tariff policy for 2027-2029 outline a continued reduction in oil and gas revenues as a proportion of the economy. Following a high of 5.5 percent of GDP in 2024, the figure is seen at 3.3 percent in 2026 before reaching 2.7 percent by the end of the decade, the document reviewed by TASS indicated. Stabilisation in global commodity markets and the diminishing role of hydrocarbons in national output underpin the trend, according to the Finance Ministry guidelines.
Russia has recorded a steady decrease in the contribution of energy sales to public finances in recent years. A Finance Ministry assessment found that the share of oil and gas income in the federal budget will drop to 15.9 percent in 2029, marking the lowest proportion since 2006 at minimum. Non-oil and gas receipts are meanwhile expected to comprise over 80 percent of total revenues throughout the planning period, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said.
Absolute oil and gas inflows are budgeted at 7 trillion rubles for 2027, 7.6 trillion in 2028 and 7.7 trillion the following year. Federal budget revenues overall are projected to expand from 43.3 trillion rubles in 2027 to 48.6 trillion in 2029, the government-approved draft showed. The budget rule’s reference oil price will be lowered to $50 per barrel from 2027, enabling greater accumulation in the National Wealth Fund during periods of higher prices.
The fiscal plan envisages a deficit close to 2 percent of GDP each year, with the non-oil and gas deficit narrowing to 5 percent. Authorities aim for a zero structural primary deficit by 2029 while maintaining spending on social commitments, defense and technological development, the Cabinet press service reported. This framework builds on last year’s 24 percent contraction in oil and gas revenues to 8.48 trillion rubles.
Overall government revenue as a share of GDP has hovered near 35 percent in the current decade and is forecast to remain around that level into the 2030s, Global Macro Database figures show. The 2026 budget execution through August revealed a deficit of 5.8 trillion rubles or 2.5 percent of GDP, with non-oil revenues rising while energy income fell, preliminary Finance Ministry data indicated. Such patterns reflect the shifting composition of public finances.
The policy document stated that oil and gas revenues have been sequentially declining after the 2024 peak, factoring in currency fluctuations, international energy prices and production-export structures. “Oil and gas revenues after achieving 5.5 percent of GDP by the results of 2024 are consistently decreasing and are estimated at the level of 3.3 percent of GDP in 2026 with subsequent reduction relative to GDP on the forecast horizon to 2.7 percent in 2029 on the background of stabilization of the price environment and reduction of the share of the oil and gas sector in the economy,” it said. The projections form the basis for the federal budget bill submitted to parliament.
