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S&P Global Ratings affirmed its AA/A-1+ long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on the UAE with a stable outlook on March 9, 2026. The agency simultaneously affirmed identical ratings for the Emirate of Abu Dhabi while maintaining the AA+ transfer and convertibility assessment for both. S&P Global Ratings said its ratings on the UAE remain supported by the government’s strong fiscal and external positions. The agency estimated the consolidated net asset position at 184 percent of GDP in 2026, which it described as providing a significant fiscal, external and economic buffer to external shocks.
Figures from S&P Global Ratings show the UAE will maintain a general government fiscal surplus over 2026-2029, although this will average 2.6 percent compared with nearly 6 percent over 2021-2025. Oil receipts constitute 45 percent to 50 percent of general government revenue, according to the agency’s calculations. S&P Global Ratings projected that Abu Dhabi, Ras Al Khaimah and Dubai will maintain small surpluses through 2029 given strong growth and their prudent fiscal stance, thereby bolstering the UAE’s consolidated fiscal position. Government liquid assets reached about 210 percent of GDP, including funds managed by sovereign wealth vehicles, deposits and minority listed shares.
S&P Global Ratings noted that the UAE is the sixth-largest crude petroleum exporter in the world, with reserves largely concentrated in Abu Dhabi that rank as the fifth-largest within OPEC and the largest per capita. The agency expects oil production to increase as OPEC+ quotas are gradually lifted over the coming years. S&P Global Ratings added that the Ghasha gas and Ruwais liquefied natural gas projects will significantly enhance Abu Dhabi’s and in turn the UAE’s gas production capacity. GDP per capita is estimated at $48,900 in 2026, a level relatively high by global standards even as it varies across the emirates.
For Abu Dhabi, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its AA/A-1+ ratings with a stable outlook on the same date. The stable outlook reflects the view that Abu Dhabi’s large fiscal and external buffers should provide room for policy maneuvering in the event of very adverse geopolitical developments or unfavorable hydrocarbon sector dynamics, including disruption in oil production or exports, according to the agency. The emirate’s fiscal strength similarly rests on accumulated net assets and prudent management that have historically enabled resilience to oil price volatility.
The International Monetary Fund projects 3.1 percent real GDP growth for the UAE in 2026. Assessments compiled by Forbes Middle East place the non-oil sector at roughly 77 percent of GDP, reflecting continued economic diversification beyond hydrocarbons. S&P Global Ratings data from the period placed government debt at about 27 percent of GDP in 2026, far below ratios observed across most advanced economies. These metrics align with the UAE’s low fiscal breakeven oil price of close to $45 per barrel cited in IMF analysis.
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority manages assets under management of approximately 1.187 trillion dollars, according to global sovereign wealth fund profiles. Such holdings form a central part of the liquid assets that S&P Global Ratings estimated at 210 percent of GDP and that underpin the affirmed ratings. S&P Global Ratings indicated that these buffers, combined with one of the lowest per-barrel production costs globally, position the federation to withstand short-term volatility in energy markets while sustaining investment in non-oil growth areas.
