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Spot gold declined 0.4 percent to $4,410.55 per ounce by early afternoon in New York while US gold futures for December delivery slipped 0.5 percent to $4,456.40, the Emirates News Agency said in its report on global bullion markets Wednesday. This movement followed Friday’s stronger than expected nonfarm payrolls report that showed job growth accelerating sharply in August with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1 percent. Market participants raised the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at its September meeting to around 60 percent according to CME FedWatch Tool data.
A World Gold Council mid-year outlook published in July noted that gold had soared to record intraday highs above $5,500 per ounce in January before pulling back below $4,000 by late June. The council anticipates the metal will likely trade in a relatively narrow range around $4,100 per ounce during the second half of the year if current conditions hold. Central bank purchases have provided consistent support with Goldman Sachs Research nowcasting acceleration to 100 tonnes per month in June on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Goldman Sachs analysts said in a September report that the bull trend for gold will resume and advised scaling into long positions near the $4,000 level ahead of the FOMC decision. The bank projects the price will climb to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 as central banks continue diversifying reserves with average monthly purchases forecast at 50 tonnes. Their assessment highlights that sovereign buying has remained resilient even amid recent volatility.
Local gold prices in the UAE mirrored the international easing with 24-karat gold quoted lower at approximately 250 dirhams per gram according to the Emirates News Agency. Physical demand across jewelry and investment segments has remained steady in the Gulf despite the daily fluctuation. Traders are now focused on US producer and consumer price index releases later this week for further signals on the interest rate trajectory.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, told Reuters that gold twice found buying interest below $4,400 in the session with resistance continuing to appear above $4,500. He added that most developments this week are likely to remain sideshows ahead of the US CPI and PPI data which will be critical in shaping expectations for the Fed’s September meeting. Elevated real yields and a firmer dollar have weighed on the metal but safe-haven flows linked to geopolitical tensions have limited the downside.
Recent analysis from FX Empire indicated that gold is compressing beneath the key $4,511 resistance level where a decisive close could trigger continuation toward initial targets near $4,800. The commodity has held support around the recent swing low of $4,282 maintaining an overall bullish structure from longer-term charts. Investors continue to monitor both technical levels and fundamental drivers including central bank activity and US monetary policy signals.
