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Spot gold fell 0.6 percent to $4,063 per ounce early on November 6 while US gold futures for December delivery dropped 1 percent to $4,073, according to price data compiled by Reuters. The decline occurred even as bullion remained on track for a 4 percent gain over the week following a sharp rebound in the previous session. Market reports distributed by the Emirates News Agency highlighted the shift in sentiment as participants weighed fresh inflationary pressures against the upcoming labor market release.
A recovery in crude oil prices over the prior day reignited concerns about persistent inflation, which in turn bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain elevated borrowing costs, a Reuters dispatch indicated. CME Group data placed the probability of a Fed rate increase in December at 68 percent. Two Federal Reserve officials had argued the previous day for measured and consistent rate rises to address inflation still running above target levels.
The US nonfarm payrolls report due later on November 6 is projected to show an addition of 65,000 jobs in October with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2 percent, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Such figures follow a September gain of just 29,000 positions that had already signaled a cooling labor market. Average hourly earnings will also draw close scrutiny since wage pressures feed directly into the central bank’s inflation assessments.
Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive, said, “Crude oil has rebounded mostly over the past day, which remains one of the inflationary knockbacks pressuring gold.” Independent metals trader Tai Wong noted that payrolls have been volatile of late and that gold could be vulnerable to a stronger-than-expected print, which would likely confirm an already anticipated December rate hike. Goldman Sachs lowered its end-2026 gold price forecast to $4,150 per ounce from $4,650, citing the implications of the Fed’s more hawkish stance in recent months.
Over the past year nonfarm payrolls have averaged 41,000 new jobs per month compared with a five-year average of 187,000, an analysis published by FXStreet showed. Wage growth has similarly moderated with average hourly earnings rising at an annual rate of 3 percent in September, down from over 5 percent in 2022. These trends have provided some support for gold as a hedge even as real yields and the dollar fluctuate in response to incoming data.
Gold had climbed to a more than two-week high near $4,146 the previous day before profit-taking set in, according to trading records from major exchanges. The metal has now retreated from that level while still holding substantial weekly gains built on a weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields following the recent US midterm elections. Investors will parse the payrolls outcome alongside remarks from Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman scheduled for later in the session.
