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Qatar National Bank outlined in its weekly economic report how artificial intelligence presents both substantial opportunities and significant risks for emerging market economies. The lender emphasised that decisive action across three key areas will determine whether nations can harness the technology to close growth gaps or risk marginalisation in an AI-driven global economy. Digital infrastructure development, robust data ecosystems and targeted skills investment form the pillars that economies must reinforce, according to the QNB assessment. Those that succeed in these domains stand to transform artificial intelligence into a tool for reducing development disparities with leading economies.
The QNB report identified artificial intelligence as one of the most transformative economic forces today, citing projections from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development that the global AI market will expand twenty-five fold to reach approximately 4.8 trillion dollars by 2033. Advanced economies are positioned for major productivity gains from the technology, yet impacts on emerging markets remain more complex and double-edged. A Bank for International Settlements analysis released earlier this year found that AI preparedness, encompassing digital infrastructure, human capital and regulatory frameworks, will largely dictate the scale of gains across economies. Nations with stronger preparedness scores are better equipped to absorb productivity benefits, the multilateral institution’s data shows.
Emerging markets can use artificial intelligence to speed development, enhance public services, expand industrial expertise and bypass constraints from legacy infrastructure, QNB stated in the report. The bank cautioned, however, that the technology also threatens to erode long-standing competitive advantages built on low-cost labour in repetitive tasks. Countries with large service sectors reliant on manual and routine work face particularly acute challenges as AI shifts economic advantages away from traditional labour cost arbitrage. A separate assessment by Oxford Economics projected that generative AI exposure is lower in many emerging markets due to higher shares of employment in sectors such as agriculture and construction that are less automatable in the near term.
Labour markets and established development models in emerging economies could experience major upheaval from widespread AI adoption, the QNB report warned. The technology transfers value from remote execution of repetitive tasks that previously depended on inexpensive human workers to more automated systems. This transition risks disrupting sectors that have underpinned growth in many developing nations for decades. International Monetary Fund research on AI preparedness indices highlights persistent gaps between advanced and emerging economies, with the latter often scoring lower on metrics such as innovation environment and digital skills.
QNB noted that economies failing to strengthen the identified pillars will likely see technological divergence accelerate, positioning artificial intelligence as a central factor in future economic stratification. In contrast, proactive investment in the three foundational areas enables countries to integrate AI effectively and support convergence toward advanced economy performance levels. A BIS bulletin on the economic impact of AI in emerging markets concluded that closing preparedness gaps through infrastructure upgrades, reskilling programmes and institutional reforms can help mitigate labour risks while promoting long-term growth alignment. The QNB analysis aligns with broader findings that AI-driven productivity effects will vary significantly based on sectoral composition and adoption capacity.
The report arrives as emerging market profit forecasts have climbed at a record pace this year, driven partly by supply chain investments linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure, according to Bloomberg compilation of analyst estimates. Earnings projections for companies in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index have risen 65 percent year to date, nearly double the prior record. Asian economies with exposure to AI hardware and components have captured much of this momentum, data from the index provider shows. QNB’s assessment underscores the need for broader policy measures beyond current investment trends to ensure inclusive benefits across developing regions.
