ع
OPEC further lowers 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 780,000 barrels per day from a prior estimate of 970,000 barrels per day, according to its Monthly Oil Market Report released on Monday. The adjustment marks the third straight downward revision to the outlook, the producer group said in the document published on its website. OPEC continues to project a smaller impact on global consumption from the Iran war than bodies such as the International Energy Agency, whose July 2026 Oil Market Report forecasts a full 1 million barrel per day contraction for the year.
The report highlighted that the global economic growth dynamic in the first half of 2026 has remained broadly resilient. OPEC raised its oil demand growth forecast for 2027 to 1.94 million barrels per day, an increase of 210,000 barrels per day from the previous projection. “The global economic growth dynamic in the first half of 2026 has remained broadly resilient,” OPEC said in the report. Potential moderations in geopolitical tensions may provide some upside for global growth in the second half of 2026 if energy markets and trade flows stabilize further, according to the assessment.
The Iran war effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz for months, curbing millions of barrels of Middle East output, the OPEC report recalled. Production is starting to recover following an interim peace agreement between Iran and the United States, although renewed military strikes have reignited concerns over shipments. OPEC+ had agreed to resume output increases from April, but the closure made it impossible to lift production to agreed quota levels, the group stated.
OPEC+ crude output averaged 36.28 million barrels per day in June, up about 3 million barrels per day from May, secondary sources monitored by the producer group showed. The May figure included the United Arab Emirates, which left both OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1. Gulf members began to resume output halted by the conflict during June, according to the report.
In contrast, the International Energy Agency’s July 2026 Oil Market Report projects world oil demand to decline by 1 million barrels per day this year before rebounding by 2 million barrels per day in 2027, with the steepest losses in the petrochemical and aviation sectors. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook similarly forecasts a 1.2 million barrel per day decrease in global consumption for 2026. Both agencies have repeatedly revised their projections lower since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, citing higher prices, weaker economic conditions and demand-saving measures.
OPEC’s World Oil Outlook released earlier in 2026 projected demand rising to just over 108 million barrels per day by 2045, an increase of nearly 14 million barrels per day from 2020 levels, with growth concentrated in non-OECD countries. The International Energy Agency expects global oil demand to plateau around 105.5 million barrels per day by the end of the decade under current policies, with annual growth slowing from roughly 700,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 2026 to a trickle in later years. Substitution in transport sectors and efficiency gains are the main factors behind the anticipated slowdown, according to the IEA analysis.
