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The Emirates News Agency reported that Brent crude futures climbed above $110 a barrel during trading sessions this week while West Texas Intermediate also posted solid gains. Market volatility increased as participants weighed risks from renewed attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping routes. WAM noted that the move marked the highest levels seen since May with trading volumes exceeding recent averages.
Reuters reported that escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns over Russian diesel availability propelled the benchmark higher with Brent settling at $109.86 a barrel on October 16. The news service detailed how attacks around the Strait of Hormuz had reduced crude flows from the Gulf prompting buyers to pay premiums for prompt supply. Energy Aspects analysts cited in the Reuters dispatch highlighted unverified reports of potential pre-emptive strikes as a factor keeping flat prices supported.
International Energy Agency data shows that global oil stocks fell sharply in recent months with OECD inventories dropping 37 million barrels since the start of the quarter. The agency assessment found that diesel markets could remain tight into 2027 driving inflation in consuming nations. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol stated at a London conference that the organization stands ready to coordinate additional emergency releases if member countries decide further action is required.
U.S. Energy Information Administration figures place Brent crude prices at an average of $114 per barrel in September after attacks on the Saudi East-West pipeline disrupted flows. The administration forecast that shut-in production in the Middle East would average 4.5 million barrels per day through the fourth quarter of 2026. EIA statistics also recorded a draw of 8.6 million barrels in U.S. crude stocks for the week ending October 9 contributing to upward pressure on domestic prices.
IEA projections indicate world oil demand will decline by 2.5 million barrels per day year-on-year in the fourth quarter as high prices weigh on economic activity. The Paris-based organization reported that non-OECD crude stocks slumped by 76 million barrels with China accounting for the majority of the decline. North Sea Dated crude soared more than $26 per barrel month-on-month to reach $116.89 in September according to the same IEA oil market report.
Reuters dispatches placed Brent futures for December 2027 delivery at elevated levels reflecting market bets that disruptions could persist beyond the near term. The wire service noted that forward contracts have climbed more than 13 percent since early September as participants lock in prices amid fragile supply recovery. IEA outlooks see little prospect of market normalisation in 2027 with supply growth from non-OPEC sources slowing to 1.1 million barrels per day next year.
